Even if Trump Wins in 2020, the House and Senate Elections Will Determine if He Stays in Office, and Your Vote Might Make the Difference

Jul 23, 2019 by Susan Rosenbluth

Every election presents voters with a binary choice, and this year’s gubernatorials and 2020 Presidential, House, and Senate races will be no different. The choice will be whether to cast a vote for the candidate of the Impeach-and-Impede-Trump Party or the Let’s-Give-Trump-Another-Four-Years Party.

Voters who want President Donald Trump to be impeached must vote for the Democrat. Even if he wins the White House, if the Democrats retain control of the House, Mr. Trump will be impeached. If they win a 67-seat majority in the Senate, he will be removed from office.

Pro-Israel voters have an equally clear choice, especially if they recognize that the President, with all his flaws, is owed Hakarat HaTov, gratitude, for actions such as recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and moving the US Embassy there, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan, and establishing the principle that Israel should not be condemned for taking steps to keep its citizens safe.

Of course, there are Democrats who claim to be pro-Israel, but it is clear that, for them, the security of the Jewish state, which, in large measure, is dependent on the success and strength of the United States, is secondary to the growth and intensification of the left’s extremist agenda.

The only way Mr. Trump, who is undoubtedly one of, if not the, most pro-Israel Presidents in history, will avoid impeachment is for Republicans to regain control of the House and retain control of the Senate.

In addition, the only way to prevent some of the more outrageously antisemitic, anti-American Democrats from assuming positions of power in the House and Senate is to make sure Republicans have control of both. If the Republicans regain the House, Ilhan Omar would no longer be on its Foreign Relations Committee.

Party, Not the Individual

It was not always this way. In years gone by, voters decided which individual candidate most deserved to win. It was the individual candidate who mattered, not the party.

According to Sharon Beck, managing editor of TheJewishVoiceAndOpinion.com and head of “Zionists 4 Trump,” that is no longer the case, especially for the pro-Israel community. Ms. Beck, a longtime Republican activist whose dictums construe what we at The Jewish Voice, only somewhat tongue-in-cheek, refer to as the “Sharon Beck School of Political Thought,” suggests that, no matter what Democratic candidates say during the campaign, once in office, they have no choice but to vote the way their party’s leaders insist.

It could be argued that this is a principle not only of the Democratic National Committee’s playbook, but the Republicans’ as well. However, no one doubts that the Democrats, now more than ever on their march to the left, are much more disciplined and their leaders much more willing to punish those who deviate.

For Democrats in Congress, especially those in their first few terms, not following DNC rules means loss of perks that come with seniority, loss of committee positions, and loss of influence.

Badgering for a Changed Vote

Those who argue that this is not true should recall what happened to Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) in December 2017, during a vote on tax-deductible education savings accounts for parents with school-age children.

According to Sen Ted Cruz (R-TX), who was on the Senate floor, the Republicans were able to get only 50 of their members to approve the bill, which meant there would be a tie in the 100-seat body. To break the standoff, Vice-President Mike Pence was called. He was on his way to the Capitol when Sen Manchin suddenly cast his vote in favor of the bill, the only Democrat to do so.

“The Vice-President was called and told that his vote was not needed after all. He and his motorcade turned around and went home,” said Mr. Cruz.

No one, he said, was prepared for what happened when Mr. Manchin went back to his desk. “He was surrounded by Democrats, descending on him like a horde of locusts, yelling at him. Five minutes later, he sheepishly walks in and changes his vote to ‘no,’” said Mr. Cruz.

For the third time that night, the Republican floor staff immediately called Mr. Pence, and, again, this time past midnight, the Vice-President and his motorcade made their way to the Capitol. On the Senate floor, Mr. Pence broke the tie, and the legislation passed.

Case of Chuck Schumer

Another example concerns Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who, in 2015, voted with the Republicans against approving President Barack Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal.

According to Ms. Beck, Mr. Schumer was allowed to vote his conscience only because the Democrats did not need his vote.

“Had his vote been needed to approve Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal, Schumer would have been pressured to change his vote, and he would have caved. Had he refused to obey the party’s leaders, he would not today be Senate Minority Leader,” said Ms. Beck.

Don’t Be Fooled by “Blue Dogs”

Recognizing this Beck School of Political Thought principle will be important for all pro-Israel voters in 2020.

Some of the Democrats who will be running for House and Senate seats will not only claim to be pro-Israel, they may also be nicer, smarter, or more articulate than their Republican opponents.

Some may posit themselves as “moderate, blue-dog” Democrats.

Ms. Beck was unimpressed. “If you like nice Democrats, invite them to tea, but don’t vote for them. Make no mistake, if the Democrats win the House and Senate and your ‘nice’ Democrat’s vote is deemed necessary to pass Articles of Impeachment—or any other bill, for that matter—he or she will vote with the party. He or she will have no choice,” she said.

Of Concern to Israel

Many observers believe the Democrats’ push to impeach Mr. Trump may well revolve around issues of importance to Israel. Given Mr. Trump’s popularity in the Jewish state, many Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are watching the American elections with concern.

And with good reason. According to a recent Pew Research poll, a full 80 percent of Republicans, but only 27 percent of Democrats, say they sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians. Just six percent of Republicans, but a full 25 percent of Democrats, say they sympathize more with the Palestinians.

Seventy-three percent of Republicans say Mr. Trump is “striking the right balance” when it comes to Middle East policy; just 21 percent of Democrats agree with them. Nearly half of Democrats say Mr. Trump favors Israel too much.

“If the Democrats retain the House, even if they can’t remove Trump from office, they can oppose every pro-Israel measure he takes. If ‘nice’ Democrats’ anti-Israel votes are needed, they will be pressured to do as the party says, and they will. They may find some way to explain their vote, hoping their pro-Israel constituents will either buy their spin or forget about it in time for the next election, but, rest assured, they, like all Democrats, will do what their party demands,” said Ms. Beck. “Senator Cory Booker voted in favor of BDS, claiming he supports ‘free speech,’ as though resolutions against boycotts, sanctions, and divestment against Israel or demands that government do no business with entities that support BDS have anything to do with free speech.”

Primaries

Right now, it is unclear which Republicans will be running against the incumbent Democrats in House and Senate races. There may well be GOP primaries which should be of interest to every pro-Israel voter who cares more about the security of the state of Israel than they do about the left’s radical agenda.

This will present a problem for the many members of the pro-Israel community who are registered Democrats. To vote in the Republican primary for the candidate most likely win in November, these pro-Israel Democrats will have to switch parties. If the better Republican does not win the primary, the voter will not be able to select him or her in the general.

“Responsible pro-Israel voters who are registered Democrats should switch party affiliation before the deadline to vote in the primary,” said Ms. Beck, adding that right after the primary, they can switch back to being Democrats if they so desire.

“But, if you care about Israel and the status of the United States and want to retain what we have gained under Trump, you must vote for the Republican,” she said.

S.L.R.